Newsflash

Greenland and parts of Antarctica are losing large volumes of ice to the oceans as their glaciers get thinner, a Nasa satellite has revealed. All of the glaciers that are changing rapidly are ones that flow into the sea. "The fact that they end in the sea means a buoyancy effect is working on them. As glaciers thin, they float better, and with less frictions, they slide into the sea faster. As glaciers thin, they reach a Tipping Point, and flow to the sea faster than they build up. source
 

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The mission of The 2050 Project is to provide accurate, useful, long-range forecasts and information about the future of the planet.  Our favored forecast interval is to 2050 and beyond, because we believe that shorter-range forecasts cannot portray the magnitude of our impending problems, and thus can only guide half-steps toward solution.

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Golden eagles in Scotland could get better protection
Written by BBC News   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009
 
Golden eagle
Golden eagles have come under threat in Scotland

Protection for the golden eagle in Scotland could be increased under proposals announced by ministers.

Over 350,000 hectares of northern and western Scotland have been earmarked as potential Special Protection Areas for the species.

Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) will begin a three-month consultation on the proposals in the new year.

Firms behind a controversial wind farm plan near Inverary in Argyll had called for the move to be put on hold.

ridge Wind and Wind Prospect, the developers involved in the Stacain wind farm project, have said the creation or further Special Protection Awould sterilise, for years, large areas of Scotland suitable for renewables developments.

The golden eagle prefers the wild countryside of peatlands, uplands and mountains, but is threatened by habitat change and inappropriate development.

There are currently eight Special Protection Areas for golden eagles in northern and western Scotland.

We must find a balance between access, conservation and development to ensure that all sectors can benefit from and enjoy the countryside
Roseanna Cunningham MSP
Environment Minister

Announcing the six new proposed areas, Environment Minister Roseanna Cunningham said it was important to try and safeguard the bird's future.

She said: "The golden eagle is the UK's second largest bird of prey and is a species which is synonymous with many of Scotland's wildest and most beautiful places.

"Scotland is an internationally important stronghold for this species. But their future is finely balanced due to their need for large, undisturbed spaces in which to live and they remain highly vulnerable to change.

"While we have a duty to protect our biodiversity for future generations, this should not automatically mean that leisure and economic activity cannot take place in our countryside.

She added: "We must find a balance between access, conservation and development to ensure that all sectors can benefit from and enjoy the countryside."

'Cultural icon'

The proposed protection areas would be from Glen Affric in the central Highlands to Strathconon in Ross-shire, the Cairngorms Massif, Foinaven at Durness, and Moidart and Ardgour near Fort William.

The fifth would be from Glen Etive near Bridge of Orchy to Glen Fyne near Arrochar, and the sixth would be Jura, Scarba and the Garvellachs off the west coast.

Susan Davies, SNH's north areas director, said: "We welcome this move by the Scottish government to look at the possibility of more protected areas for Scotland's golden eagles.

"As a top predator, it is very much a barometer of the health of our natural environment.

"This bird is also a cultural icon and is often what people at home and abroad think of when they think of our country and our wildlife."

The proposals for further protection were also welcomed by RSPB Scotland.

Director Stuart Housden said: "Golden eagles require large home ranges, which can be affected by land use changes such as poorly-located forestry planting, loss of prey such as rabbits and hares, wind farms and - sadly- continuing persecution.

"The new SPAs will ensure that decision-makers consider the needs of the eagles, and land managers qualify for support from the Scottish Rural Development Plan so that they can continue to look after them.

"This is a great day for Scotland's unofficial national bird."

Once the consultation is over, the Scottish government will decide whether to classify any of the suggested zones as Special Protection Areas.

source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8387628.stm

 
Scientist in climate change data row steps down
Written by BBC News   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009
 
Professor Phil Jones
Professor Phil Jones has stepped down as director of the CRU

The research director at the centre of a row over climate change data said he would stand down from the post while there is an independent review.

Professor Phil Jones, director of the Norwich-based University of East Anglia's (UEA) Climatic Research Unit (CRU), has said he stands by his data.

Sceptics claim the e-mails, leaked after a UEA server was hacked into, showed data was being manipulated.

The hacking of the computer is being investigated by Norfolk Police.

The files stolen from the computer include documents, detailed data and private e-mails exchanged between leading climate scientists.

'Continue research'

Professor Jones said he would stand aside as director until the completion of the independent review.

It is being conducted in the wake of the allegations by climate "sceptics".

The material was taken from servers at the world-renowned research centre before it was published on websites run by climate change sceptics.

Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world-leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible.

"After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the director's role during the course of the independent review."

Professor Peter Liss will become acting director while the review is conducted, the university said.

Read more...
 
Major sea level rise likely as Antarctic ice melts
Written by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009

Minke whales and iceberg
The Southern Ocean is the world's most important feeding ground for whales

Sea levels are likely to rise by about 1.4m (4ft 6in) globally by 2100 as polar ice melts, according to a major review of climate change in Antarctica.

Conducted by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), it says that warming seas are accelerating melting in the west of the continent.

ozone loss has cooled the region, it says, shielding it from global warming.

Rising temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula are making life suitable for invasive species on land and sea.

The report - Antarctic climate Change and the Environment - was written using contributions from 100 leading scientists in various disciplines, and reviewed by a further 200.

Composite image of Maestland storm barrier in the Netherlands and Mozambique coastline defence

SCAR's executive director Dr Colin Summerhayes said it painted a picture of "the creeping global catastrophe that we face".

"The temperature of the air is increasing, the temperature of the ocean is increasing, sea levels are rising - and the Sun appears to have very little influence on what we see," he said.

SCAR's report comes 50 years to the day after the Antarctic Treaty, the international agreement regulating use of the territory, was opened for signing, and a week before the opening of the potentially seminal UN climate summit in Copenhagen.

Read more...
 
'Show Your Working': What 'ClimateGate' means
Written by Mike Hulme and Jerome Ravetz   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009

The "ClimateGate" affair - the publication of e-mails and documents hacked or leaked from one of the world's leading climate research institutions - is being intensely debated on the web. But what does it imply for climate science? Here, Mike Hulme and Jerome Ravetz say it shows that we need a more concerted effort to explain and engage the public in understanding the processes and practices of science and scientists.

Robot
Practising scientists know that they do not simply follow a rulebook to do their science, otherwise it could be done by a robot

As the repercussions of ClimateGate reverberate around the virtual community of global citizens, we believe it is both important and urgent to reflect on what this moment is telling us about the practice of science in the 21st Century.

In particular, what is it telling us about the social status and perceived authority of scientific claims about climate change?

We argue that the evolving practice of science in the contemporary world must be different from the classic view of disinterested - almost robotic - humans establishing objective claims to universal truth.

Climate change policies are claimed to be grounded in scientific knowledge about physical cause and effect and about reliable projections of the future.

As opposed to other ways of knowing the world around us - through intuition, inherited belief, myth - such scientific knowledge retains its authority by widespread trust in science's reassuring norms of objectivity, universality and disinterestedness.

These perceived norms work to guarantee to the public trustworthy scientific knowledge, and allow such knowledge to claim high authority in political deliberation and argumentation; this, at least, is what historically has been argued in the case of climate change.

What distinguishes science from other forms of knowledge?

On what basis does scientific knowledge earn its high status and authority?

What are the minimum standards of scientific practice that ensure it is trustworthy?

For an open, enquiring and participative society, these are questions that have become much more important in the wake of ClimateGate.

They are also questions that scientists should continually be asking of themselves as the political and cultural worlds within which they do their work rapidly change.

Doing science in 2010 demands something rather different from scientists than did science in 1960, or even in 1985.

Read more...
 
'Global surge' in rhino poaching
Written by BBC News   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009
 
Black rhino (Image: BBC)
Conservationists call for action at the "highest level" to halt poaching

Rhino poaching around the world is on the rise despite efforts to protect the animals, a report warns.

The global surge in the illegal trade has been driven by demands from Asian medicinal markets, the study by conservationists concluded.

It suggests that a decline in law enforcement is the main reason for the rise in poaching in Africa.

The report found that 95% of rhino poaching in Africa since 2006 had occurred in Zimbabwe and South Africa.

The data was compiled by Traffic, the global wildlife trade monitoring network, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), with funding from WWF International.

The findings have been submitted to the secretariat of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), ahead of a key gathering in March.

The authors added that poachers were now adopting much more sophisticated techniques such as veterinary drugs to kill their prey.

Read more...
 
Save 'special' carnivores plea
Written by Matt Walker, Editor, Earth News   
Monday, 30 November 2009

Walrus
A unique animal

Giant otters, monk seals, walruses, spectacled bears, giant and red pandas and the odd-looking fossa are among the carnivores most in need of conserving.

That is according to the most-detailed study yet of the evolutionary history of carnivores and their relationships.

It examined 222 carnivore species including big cats, wolves, bears, seals, otters and their relatives.

It found that some species are so distinctive that special efforts should be made to ensure their survival.

 

We should pay careful attention to what is happening to walrus populations. Our results suggest we should fight to keep it safe
Professor Ingi Agnarsson
University of Puerto Rico

Details of the research are published in the journal Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution.

Despite the popularity of carnivores and the large number of studies done on them, scientists still do not completely understand how they evolved, and how modern species are related to one another.

"There are many questions that are yet to be answered in a satisfying manner," says Professor Ingi Agnarsson of the University of Puerto Rico in San Juan, who led the new study.

For example, the relationships between the cat-like families, known as feliforms, is unresolved.

"Even the relationships among the big cats, lion, tiger, leopard etc are really very poorly understood," he says.

Read more...
 
Solar panel costs 'set to fall'
Written by Roger Harrabin, Environment analyst, BBC News   
Monday, 30 November 2009

Photovoltaic panels
The fall in cost is due to the increased lifetime, the institute says

The cost of installing and owning solar panels will fall even faster than expected according to new research.

Tests show that 90% of existing solar panels last for 30 years, instead of the predicted 20 years.

According to the independent EU Energy Institute, this brings down the lifetime cost.

The institute says the panels are such a good long-term investment that banks should offer mortgages on them like they do on homes.

At a conference, the institute forecast that solar panels would be cost-competitive with energy from the grid for half the homes in Europe by 2020 - without a subsidy.

Basically everything (in the industry) is bound to grow still further. Growing further means less cost
Heinz Ossenbrink, EU Energy Institute

Incentive programmes for solar panels in Germany, Italy and Spain have created manufacturing volume that's bringing down costs. Solar panel prices dropped 30% last year alone due to an increase in output and a drop in orders because of the recession.

But Heinz Ossenbrink, who works at the institute, said China had underpinned its solar industry with a big solar domestic programme which would keep prices falling. There are large-scale solar plans in the US and India too.

Panels had been expected to last for 20 years and price calculations were based on this (with a free energy source, purchase and installation represent almost the entire price of solar power).

But Dr Ossenbrink says the institute's laboratory has been subjecting the cells to the sort of accelerated ageing through extremes of heat, cold and humidity that has long been a benchmark for the car industry.

Read more...
 
Mount Everest to host Nepal cabinet meeting
Written by BBC News   
Sunday, 29 November 2009
 
Mount Everest
Mount Everest is the highest point on earth

Nepal is to hold a cabinet meeting on Mount Everest to highlight the threat global warming poses to glaciers.

On 4 December prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and those politicians physically fit enough will ascend 17,192ft (5,250m) to base camp.

In October the Maldives held a cabinet meeting underwater to warn of the effect of rising sea levels.

This meeting, to be held before the Copenhagen climate conference, aims to highlight Himalayan glacier melt.

With ice in the region melting at a rapid rate, lakes have been formed which could flood nearby villages.

Melted ice and snow also makes mountaineering routes more hazardous.

At such a high altitude health is a major concern, so a team of doctors will accompany the politicians.

They will fly to Everest's only airstrip, Lukla.

Doctors will make a final health assessment before a helicopter takes the cabinet to base camp, at the foot of Everest.

Once there they will hold a brief outdoor meeting.

Mount Everest is the highest point on earth, with a summit 29,035 ft (8,850 m) above sea level.

 

source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8385170.stm

 
Big profit from nature protection
Written by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website   
Friday, 13 November 2009

Fire clearing Amazon forest for cattle
Societies gain financially from leaving forests intact rather than clearing them

Money invested in protecting nature can bring huge financial returns, according to a major investigation into the costs and benefits of the natural world.

It says money ploughed into protecting wetlands, coral reefs and forests can bring a hundredfold return on capital.

The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity study (Teeb) is backed by the UN and countries including the UK.

The project's leader says governments should act on its findings at next month's UN climate summit.

Teeb is the first attempt to evaluate the economic value of "ecosystem services" - things that parts of the natural world do for free, such as purifying drinking water or protecting coasts from storms - on a systematic and global basis.

We can say quite confidently that there is a solid benefit from investing in protected areas
Pavan Sukhdev

"We have now evaluated 1,100 studies ranging across different countries and different ecosystem services," said study leader Pavan Sukhdev, a Deutsche Bank economist.

"And we find that with protected areas, for example, no matter how you slice the figures up you come up with a ratio of benefits to costs that's between 25-to-one and 100-to-one.

"Now we can say quite confidently that there is a solid benefit from investing in protected areas," he told BBC News.

Read more...
 
Amazon deforestation 'record low'
Written by Gary Duffy, BBC News, Sao Paulo   
Friday, 13 November 2009

Rainforest destruction in Brazil
Brazil's disappearing rainforests have been a concern for decades

The rate of deforestation in the Amazon has dropped by 45% and is the lowest on record since monitoring began 21 years ago, Brazil's government says.

According to the latest annual figures, just over 7,000 sq km was destroyed between July 2008 and August 2009.

The drop is welcome news for the government in advance of the Copenhagen summit on climate change.

But Greenpeace says there is still too much deforestation and the government's targets are not ambitious enough.

According to the Brazilian space agency, which monitors deforestation in the Amazon, the annual rate of destruction fell by 45%.

Green credentials

Welcoming the news, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva described the drop in the level of deforestation as "extraordinary".

He said climate change was the most challenging issue the world was facing.

The Brazilian government will undoubtedly view the latest figures as a boost to its green credentials coming just before the Copenhagen summit in December.

At the summit, the Brazilian government seems certain to present its efforts to reduce destruction in the Amazon as a key part of its strategy to combat climate change.

The environment ministry here is said to be proposing that around half of a 40% cut in Brazil's carbon emissions would come from reducing deforestation.

The Brazilian government wants to see an 80% reduction in the deforestation rate by 2020.

The environmental pressure group, Greenpeace, welcomed the latest drop as important, but said that there was still too much destruction in the rainforest.

In a statement, it said the president would be happy if, in 11 years time, the Amazon was being destroyed at a rate of a little less than three cities the size of Sao Paulo a year.

Some environmentalists believe that the fall in deforestation may be connected to the economic downturn, and that when things improve, the Amazon could face renewed pressure.

source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8358094.stm

 
UK climate targets 'unachievable'
Written by Matt McGrath, Science reporter   
Friday, 13 November 2009

Planktonic alga (SPL)
Stimulating algal growth could soak up more CO2 says scientists

UK government plans to make carbon emission cuts of 80% by 2050 are physically impossible to achieve, according to a new analysis.

The Institution of Mechanical Engineers says there is not enough time or capacity to build the wind turbines and extra nuclear power stations required.

Under current plans, the targets will not be met until 2100, it argues.

The Department of Energy and climate change accused the institution of having a "can't do, won't do attitude".

IMeche also called for a major investment in geo-engineering.

It is calling for a "war" on climate change with a beefed up government department in charge.

It could also mean the introduction of some form of carbon "rationing" for individuals to make people aware of how much energy they are consuming.

The UK's Climate Change Act passed into law in 2008, putting a legal imperative on the government to cut emissions by 80% of their 1990 levels by 2050, with a mid-term target of 34% cuts by 2020.

But the report investigates how practical these targets are to reach and concludes that they cannot be met with the current approaches to cutting carbon.

They would not, in fact, be reached until the year 2100.

Read more...
 
Greenland ice loss 'accelerating'
Written by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website   
Thursday, 12 November 2009

Ilulissat glacier (Image: BBC)
The Ilulissat glacier has retreated by approximately 15km over the past decade

The Greenland ice sheet is losing its mass faster than in previous years and making an increasing contribution to sea level rise, a study has confirmed.

Published in the journal Science, it has also given scientists a clearer view of why the sheet is shrinking.

The team used weather data, satellite readings and models of ice sheet behaviour to analyse the annual loss of 273 thousand million tonnes of ice.

Melting of the entire sheet would raise sea levels globally by about 7m (20ft).

For the period 2000-2008, melting Greenland ice raised sea levels by an average of about 0.46mm per year.

If you multiply these numbers up it puts us well beyond the IPCC estimates for 2100
Professor Roger Barry

Since 2006, that has increased to 0.75mm per year.

"Since 2000, there's clearly been an accelerating loss of mass [from the ice sheet]," said lead researcher Michiel van den Broeke from Utrecht University in the Netherlands.

"But we've had three very warm summers, and that's enhanced the melt considerably.

"If this is going to continue, I cannot tell - but we do of course expect the climate to become warmer in the future."

In total, sea levels are rising by about 3mm per year, principally because seawater is expanding as it warms.

Read more...
 
Crime rings boost ivory smuggling
Written by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website   
Wednesday, 11 November 2009

Snifer dog tracks down ivory
The number of seizures has gone up, and so has their average size

The last year has seen a major increase in the illegal ivory trade, with more involvement from organised crime.

Figures compiled by Traffic, the agency charged with monitoring the trade, show a doubling in the volume of illegal ivory seized from 2008 to 2009.

Researchers believe most of it is poached in West and Central Africa, while China is the main destination.

Traffic says there is no evidence that last year's one-off legal sale of ivory in southern Africa boosted smuggling.

The volume of ivory seized is not a complete indication of the size of the illegal trade, because the effectiveness of police and customs authorities can vary from year to year and only a fraction of illegal consignments are discovered.

More than any other country, China seemingly holds the key for reversing the upward trend in illicit trade in ivory
Traffic report

Nevertheless, Traffic believes a significant increase lies behind the seizure figures, especially because the final numbers for 2009 could rise even higher.

"Our analysis cuts off in August, and our figures are already showing the increase," said the agency's director Steven Broad.

"So it's a serious concern. And the increase is based on a relatively small number of big seizures, which tend to indicate more organised operations behind the trade," he told BBC News.

A year ago, an operation by Interpol and Kenyan authorities netted a tonne of ivory in a single consignment - one of the biggest on record - and led to the arrest of 57 people in five African countries.

Reports indicate that prices of $1,000 per kilo can now be commanded.

Read more...
 
Poor nations vow low-carbon path
Written by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website   
Wednesday, 11 November 2009

Food aid convoy
Some countries believe climate change will increase the need for food aid

Poor countries considered vulnerable to climate change have pledged to embark on moves to a low-carbon future, and challenge richer states to match them.

The declaration from the first meeting of a new 11-nation forum calls on rich countries to give 1.5% of their GDP for climate action in the developing world.

It also calls for much tougher limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

The forum was established by Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed to highlight the climate "threat" to poor nations.

The declaration contends that man-made climate change poses an "existential threat to our nations, our cultures and to our way of life, and thereby undermines the internationally protected human rights of our people".

There is another reality that trumps domestic political realities
Saleemul Huq, IIED

The Maldives are threatened principally by rising sea levels, as are other other nations within the Climate Vulnerable Forum (V11) such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Pacific island of Kiribati.

President Nasheed recently held a cabinet meeting underwater to highlight the issue.

The forum also includes nations likely to be impacted by melting glaciers essential to freshwater supplies (Bhutan and Nepal) and by drought (Kenya and Tanzania).

Read more...
 
Kenya's heart stops pumping
Written by James Morgan, BBC News, Kenya   
Tuesday, 29 September 2009

 

Children in the settlement known as "Sierra Leone" stand before forest land which has been cleared for cultivation

 

high in the hills of Kenya's Mau forest, some 20,000 families are facing eviction from their farms - accused of contributing to an ecological disaster which has crippled the country.

The authorities are to start the process of removing them any day now. Farmers will be asked to surrender their title deeds for inspection.

If their documents are genuine, they have a chance of being resettled or compensated.

We must act now - before the entire ecosystem is irreversibly damaged
Raila Odinga,

Prime Minister, Kenya


If not, they will simply be told to go.

"We are afraid. Not only me, but all of us here," says Kipkorir Ngeno, a teacher and father of six.

"They call us squatters - a very bad name. But this is my land. It is not illegal."

Drought and despair

Mr Ngeno is one of those accused of responsibility for droughts which have left millions of Kenyans thirsty for water and hungry for retribution.

Kipkorir Ngeno
They call us squatters - a very bad name
Kipkorir Ngeno,

Farmer, Mau forest


Mau forest is Kenya's largest water tower - it stores rain during the wet seasons and pumps it out during the dry months.

But during the past 15 years, more than 100,000 hectares - one quarter of the protected forest reserve - have been settled and cleared.

Tearing out the trees at the heart of Kenya has triggered a cascade of drought and despair in the surrounding valleys.

The rivers that flow from the forest are drying up.

And as they disappear, so too have Kenya's harvests, its cattle farms, its hydro-electricity, its tea industry, its lakes and even its famous wildlife parks.

The finger of blame is being pointed at the settlers in Mau. And the solution, according to a special task force appointed by Prime Minister Raila Odinga, is to uproot the invaders and replant the trees.

Of 20,000 families living in the forest, they estimate that as few as 1,962 have genuine title deeds.

Read more...
 
Giant fish 'verges on extinction'
Written by Jody Bourton, Earth News reporter   
Tuesday, 29 September 2009

Chinese paddlefish (Psephurus gladius)
A river giant vanishes

One of the world's largest freshwater fish is on the verge of going extinct.

A three-year quest to find the giant Chinese paddlefish in the Yangtze river failed to sight or catch a single individual.

That means that the fish, which can grow up to 7m long, has not been seen alive for at least six years.

There remains a chance that some escaped the survey and survive, say experts, but without action, the future of the species is bleak.

The concern for the Chinese paddlefish is that its fate will parallel that of the Yangtze river dolphin, a large mammal species that was once abundant in the Yangtze river system, but has recently been declared extinct.

Chinese paddlefish (Psephurus gladius)
Some people call it the 'elephant fish' and we found out it swims on the surface of the water like a whale
Professor Wei Qiwei
Chinese Academy of Fisheries Science

A number of fish species vie for the position of the world's largest freshwater fish, including the arapaima (Arapaima gigas) of the Amazon river and the Mekong giant catfish (Pangasianodon gigas).

At up to 7m, the Chinese paddlefish (Psephurus gladius) is much longer than either, though it may not exclusively live in freshwater.

The fish is suspected to be anadromous, meaning it spends some of its life in marine waters before returning to the river to spawn. But it is so rare that little is known about its behaviour, life history, migration habits and population structure.

It is endemic to the Yangtze river system in China.

"It has special characteristics such as its sword-like rostrum. Some people call it the 'elephant fish' and we found out it swims on the surface of the water like a whale," says Professor Wei Qiwei, one of the leaders of the research team from the Chinese Academy of Fisheries Science in Jingzhou, China.

The last confirmed sighting of a Chinese paddlefish was made in the river on 24 January 2003.

Now scientists have published in the Journal of Applied Ichthyology the results of a three-year survey to find and locate the fish.

Professor Wei and colleagues surveyed the upper Yangtze river between Xinshi, Sichaun Province and Chongquing, covering a distance of 488.5km.

Most of this stretch of water lies within the Upper Yangtze National Nature Reserve, a protected area.

Read more...
 
Iraq's drought: Eden drying out
Written by Hugh Sykes, BBC News, Baghdad   
Tuesday, 29 September 2009
 
Date farmers Idris and Sarieh Alaa al-Din (photo by Hugh Sykes/BBC)
Lush appearances are deceptive at the Alaa ad-Din brothers' date plantation

The Garden of Eden is in danger of turning into a dustbowl. The legendary Eden was in Mesopotamia, the land between two rivers - the Tigris and the Euphrates. For hundreds of miles between their lower reaches there is fabulously fertile farmland.

But it's hardly rained in Iraq for more than two years, the river levels have dropped by half in some places, and farmland is drying out.

The drought is having a devastating effect on Iraq's most renowned export after oil - its dates.

Iraq used to produce three-quarters of the world's entire date crop every year. Now, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran export more dates than Iraq.

At a date farm in Baghdad - near the city centre - it all seems lush and lyrical.

 

Abandoned boats lie high and dry where the water level used to be. Sandbanks which were once under the surface now stretch high above it

There's a strong smell of fresh mint in the air. Herbs, and vegetables like Jew's Mallow, are grown between the trees; their roots fix nitrogen in the soil, which helps to nourish the palms with natural fertiliser.

But the dates are not well.

The plantation is farmed by two brothers with warm smiles - Idris and Sarieh Alaa ad-Din. They say the drought is so bad they only get dates every two years now.

From their 1,500 palm trees, they tell me they used to collect up to 50 tonnes of dates every harvest every year - last year they only got 30 tonnes.

They have had no harvest at all this year.

Since 2007, Iraq has had a lot less than half its normal rainfall. This has had another effect on the date harvest - rain cleans the trees, and washes away pests that degrade the crop. Now the insects thrive, and the trees suffer.

Idris and Sarieh say the last time there was any serious rain here was six months ago.

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 29 September 2009 )
Read more...
 
Four degrees of warming 'likely'
Written by David Shukman, Environment correspondent, BBC News   
Monday, 28 September 2009

Clock protest in Bangkok
Campaigners tried to point up the urgency of the UN climate talks

In a dramatic acceleration of forecasts for global warming, UK scientists say the global average temperature could rise by 4C (7.2F) as early as 2060.

The Met Office study used projections of fossil fuel use that reflect the trend seen over the last 20 years.

Their computer models also factored in new findings on how carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans and forests.

The finding was presented at an Oxford University conference exploring the implications of a 4C rise.

The results show a "best estimate" of 4C being reached by 2070, with a possibility that it will come as early as 2060.

Previously we haven't looked at the impact of burning fossil fuels so intensely
Richard Betts

Richard Betts of the Met Office Hadley Centre described himself as "shocked" that so much warming could occur within the lifetimes of people alive today.

"If greenhouse gas emissions are not cut soon then we could see major climate changes within our own lifetimes," he said.

"Four degrees of warming averaged over the globe translates into even greater warming in many regions, along with major changes in rainfall."

Read more...
 
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