Newsflash

Greenland and parts of Antarctica are losing large volumes of ice to the oceans as their glaciers get thinner, a Nasa satellite has revealed. All of the glaciers that are changing rapidly are ones that flow into the sea. "The fact that they end in the sea means a buoyancy effect is working on them. As glaciers thin, they float better, and with less frictions, they slide into the sea faster. As glaciers thin, they reach a Tipping Point, and flow to the sea faster than they build up. source
 

The 2050 Project Mission Statement

The mission of The 2050 Project is to provide accurate, useful, long-range forecasts and information about the future of the planet.  Our favored forecast interval is to 2050 and beyond, because we believe that shorter-range forecasts cannot portray the magnitude of our impending problems, and thus can only guide half-steps toward solution.

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India puts on hold first GM food crop on safety grounds
Written by BBC News   
Tuesday, 09 February 2010
 
Protest against aubergine release an aubergine - January 16, 2010
The cultivation of the BT brinjal aubergine variety has divided opinion

India has deferred the commercial cultivation of what would have been its first genetically modified (GM) vegetable crop due to safety concerns.

Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said more studies were needed to ensure genetically modified aubergines were safe for consumers and the environment.

The GM vegetable has undergone field trials since 2008 and received approval from government scientists in 2009.

But there has been a heated public row over the cultivation of the GM crop.

The BBC's Geeta Pandey, who was at the news conference in Delhi, says Mr Ramesh's decision has put any cultivation of GM vegetables in India on hold indefinitely.

Read more...
 
Food chains 'disrupted by earlier arrival of spring'
Written by Mark Kinver, BBC Science and environment reporter   
Tuesday, 09 February 2010

Oak leaves (Pete Holmes/Woodland Trust)
Earlier springs are having a wide impact, the study shows

Springtime in the UK is starting on average 11 days earlier than 30 years ago, causing natural food chains to become disrupted, a study suggests.

Predators seem to be slower than organisms further down the food chains to respond to the seasonal shifts, according to a team of UK researchers.

The findings are based on more than 25,500 records of 726 marine, terrestrial and freshwater species.

The study has been published in the journal Global Change Biology.

"If biological events at different levels within the food chains are changing at different rates, it is possible that we are seeing a de-synchronisation," explained lead author Stephen Thackeray, an ecologist at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH).

Read more...
 
Climate scepticism 'on the rise', BBC poll shows
Written by BBC News   
Sunday, 07 February 2010
 
BBC graphic (Image: BBC)

The number of British people who are sceptical about climate change is rising, a poll for BBC News suggests.

The Populus poll of 1,001 adults found 25% did not think global warming was happening, an increase of 10% since a similar poll was conducted in November.

The percentage of respondents who said climate change was a reality had fallen from 83% in November to 75% this month.

And only 26% of those asked believed climate change was happening and "now established as largely man-made".

The findings are based on interviews carried out on 3-4 February.

In November 2009, a similar poll by Populus - commissioned by the Times newspaper - showed that 41% agreed that climate change was happening and it was largely the result of human activities.

Read more...
 
India backs embattled climate chief Pachauri
Written by BBC News   
Friday, 05 February 2010
 

Dr Rajendra Pachauri: 'The science... is as compelling as one would expect it to be'

India has firmly backed climate change chief Rajendra Pachauri - who has been under attack over recent scientific errors - at UN-led talks in Delhi.

PM Manmohan Singh said India had "full confidence" in the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change (IPCC) and its chairman, Dr Pachauri.

Environment minister Jairam Ramesh, previously critical of the IPCC, said the government backed him to the hilt.

The Delhi talks are the first major climate change forum since Copenhagen.

The convention comes amid a row over climate change science which has seen sceptics seize on scientific errors to support their case.

The IPCC - the UN's climate science body - admitted last month that it had made a mistake in asserting that Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035, a date it included in its 2007 assessment of climate impacts.

The issue, which BBC News first reported on 5 December, has reverberated around climate websites since.

Read more...
 
Sweden wants explanation on Baltic nuclear 'dumping'
Written by Damien McGuinness, BBC News, Riga   
Friday, 05 February 2010

Baltic Sea
The Baltic Sea is especially vulnerable to pollution

The Russian military allegedly dumped nuclear waste into the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s, according to a report on Swedish television.

Radioactive material from a military base in Latvia is thought to have been thrown into Swedish waters.

For many the biggest shock is that the Swedish government may have known at the time and done nothing about it.

The partly enclosed Baltic Sea is known as one of the most polluted seas in the world.

But now it seems it was also used as a dumping ground for Russian nuclear waste and chemical weapons.

According to a report on Swedish television, Russian boats sailed out at night to dump barrels of radioactive material, from a military base in Latvia, into Swedish waters.

And even though the Swedish government at the time reportedly knew this, no action was taken to find the waste.

The current government in Stockholm now wants the politicians who were then in charge to explain why they did nothing to find the barrels.

The Baltic Sea is semi-enclosed, so it takes a long time to flush out toxins. This makes it particularly vulnerable to pollution.

And after years of untreated waste from Russia's cities and heavy industries, scientists say that the Baltic is in danger of becoming a dead sea.

Next week high-ranking politicians from those countries bordering the Baltic, including Russia, are due to attend a summit in Helsinki to discuss how to save it.

But if reports about Soviet nuclear waste being dumped prove true, then Russia will have even more accusations of pollution to answer.

source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8499762.stm

 
Distorted view through the climate gates
Written by Richard Black   
Tuesday, 02 February 2010

Much has been written - not least on this website - and much more surely will be written over the coming months about supposed inconsistencies, errors, misjudgements and poor practice among climate scientists.

How many "scandals" do we now have with the suffix "-gate" attached to them? At least five, by my count, with the most embarrassing surely being the projection that the mighty Himalayan glaciers could largely be gone within a human generation.

EarthThe latest -gate - detailed in a series of articles in The Guardian by environment journalist Fred Pearce - concerns a set of temperature data from China that was used in a 1990 paper in Nature to estimate the likely impact of progressive urbanisation on temperatures recorded at weather stations.

The paper is one of several cited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in reaching its conclusion that:

"Urban heat island effects are real but local, and have not biased the large-scale trends."

The implication of The Guardian's article is that Chinese scientists contributing data for that paper had not taken as much care as they should have done to document and allow for the fact that some of the weather stations had been relocated over the course of the study period, possibly affecting their readings; and that at some stage the paper's lead author, Professor Phil Jones, had been made aware of the issue by an independent UK researcher, Douglas Keenan, but did not seek to publicise or remedy it.

Read more...
 
India criticises UN warning on Himalayan glacier melt
Written by BBC News   
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
 
Mount Everest and Khumbu glacier
The Himalayas hold the planet's largest body of ice outside the polar caps

India has criticised the UN panel on climate change saying its grim warning about melting Himalayan glaciers was not based on "scientific evidence".

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change (IPCC) said the chances of Himalayan glaciers "disappearing by 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high".

But this projection has since been questioned and on Monday the IPCC chief said the panel would review the figure.

Indian environment Minister Jairam Ramesh called for an explanation.

He said that the IPCC must account for how it reached the 2035 figure.

Read more...
 
UN climate body admits 'mistake' on Himalayan glaciers
Written by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website   
Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Satellite image of Himalayas (SPL)
Neither satellites nor ground observations give a complete picture

The vice-chairman of the UN's climate science panel has admitted it made a mistake in asserting that Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035.

The Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) included the date in its 2007 assessment of climate impacts.

A number of scientists have recently disputed the 2035 figure, and Jean-Pascal van Ypersele told BBC News that it was an error and would be reviewed.

But he said it did not change the broad picture of man-made climate change.

The issue, which BBC News first reported on 05 December, has reverberated around climate websites in recent days.

It is so wrong that it is not even worth discussing
Georg Kaser, University of Innsbruck

Some commentators maintain that taken together with the contents of e-mails stolen last year from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit, it undermines the credibility of climate science.

Dr van Ypersele said this was not the case.

"I don't see how one mistake in a 3,000-page report can damage the credibility of the overall report," he said.

"Some people will attempt to use it to damage the credibility of the IPCC; but if we can uncover it, and explain it and change it, it should strengthen the IPCC's credibility, showing that we are ready to learn from our mistakes."

Read more...
 
An animated journey through the Earth's climate history
Written by BBC News   
Thursday, 03 December 2009

As world leaders prepare to meet in Copenhagen to discuss climate change - how did the Earth's climate arrive at its current state and how do scientists delve into the secrets of our planet's past?

The layers of ice laid down each year in Antarctica and Greenland store a record of the Earth's climate. Bubbles of air trapped in the ice as it froze can be analysed to give details on temperature at the time it froze, and on atmospheric concentrations of gases.

The oldest ice core so far extracted belongs to the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (Epica). It allows scientists to look back 800,000 years.

Read more...
 
Golden eagles in Scotland could get better protection
Written by BBC News   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009
 
Golden eagle
Golden eagles have come under threat in Scotland

Protection for the golden eagle in Scotland could be increased under proposals announced by ministers.

Over 350,000 hectares of northern and western Scotland have been earmarked as potential Special Protection Areas for the species.

Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) will begin a three-month consultation on the proposals in the new year.

Firms behind a controversial wind farm plan near Inverary in Argyll had called for the move to be put on hold.

ridge Wind and Wind Prospect, the developers involved in the Stacain wind farm project, have said the creation or further Special Protection Awould sterilise, for years, large areas of Scotland suitable for renewables developments.

The golden eagle prefers the wild countryside of peatlands, uplands and mountains, but is threatened by habitat change and inappropriate development.

There are currently eight Special Protection Areas for golden eagles in northern and western Scotland.

We must find a balance between access, conservation and development to ensure that all sectors can benefit from and enjoy the countryside
Roseanna Cunningham MSP
Environment Minister

Announcing the six new proposed areas, Environment Minister Roseanna Cunningham said it was important to try and safeguard the bird's future.

She said: "The golden eagle is the UK's second largest bird of prey and is a species which is synonymous with many of Scotland's wildest and most beautiful places.

"Scotland is an internationally important stronghold for this species. But their future is finely balanced due to their need for large, undisturbed spaces in which to live and they remain highly vulnerable to change.

"While we have a duty to protect our biodiversity for future generations, this should not automatically mean that leisure and economic activity cannot take place in our countryside.

She added: "We must find a balance between access, conservation and development to ensure that all sectors can benefit from and enjoy the countryside."

'Cultural icon'

The proposed protection areas would be from Glen Affric in the central Highlands to Strathconon in Ross-shire, the Cairngorms Massif, Foinaven at Durness, and Moidart and Ardgour near Fort William.

The fifth would be from Glen Etive near Bridge of Orchy to Glen Fyne near Arrochar, and the sixth would be Jura, Scarba and the Garvellachs off the west coast.

Susan Davies, SNH's north areas director, said: "We welcome this move by the Scottish government to look at the possibility of more protected areas for Scotland's golden eagles.

"As a top predator, it is very much a barometer of the health of our natural environment.

"This bird is also a cultural icon and is often what people at home and abroad think of when they think of our country and our wildlife."

The proposals for further protection were also welcomed by RSPB Scotland.

Director Stuart Housden said: "Golden eagles require large home ranges, which can be affected by land use changes such as poorly-located forestry planting, loss of prey such as rabbits and hares, wind farms and - sadly- continuing persecution.

"The new SPAs will ensure that decision-makers consider the needs of the eagles, and land managers qualify for support from the Scottish Rural Development Plan so that they can continue to look after them.

"This is a great day for Scotland's unofficial national bird."

Once the consultation is over, the Scottish government will decide whether to classify any of the suggested zones as Special Protection Areas.

source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8387628.stm

 
Scientist in climate change data row steps down
Written by BBC News   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009
 
Professor Phil Jones
Professor Phil Jones has stepped down as director of the CRU

The research director at the centre of a row over climate change data said he would stand down from the post while there is an independent review.

Professor Phil Jones, director of the Norwich-based University of East Anglia's (UEA) Climatic Research Unit (CRU), has said he stands by his data.

Sceptics claim the e-mails, leaked after a UEA server was hacked into, showed data was being manipulated.

The hacking of the computer is being investigated by Norfolk Police.

The files stolen from the computer include documents, detailed data and private e-mails exchanged between leading climate scientists.

'Continue research'

Professor Jones said he would stand aside as director until the completion of the independent review.

It is being conducted in the wake of the allegations by climate "sceptics".

The material was taken from servers at the world-renowned research centre before it was published on websites run by climate change sceptics.

Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world-leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible.

"After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the director's role during the course of the independent review."

Professor Peter Liss will become acting director while the review is conducted, the university said.

Read more...
 
Major sea level rise likely as Antarctic ice melts
Written by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009

Minke whales and iceberg
The Southern Ocean is the world's most important feeding ground for whales

Sea levels are likely to rise by about 1.4m (4ft 6in) globally by 2100 as polar ice melts, according to a major review of climate change in Antarctica.

Conducted by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), it says that warming seas are accelerating melting in the west of the continent.

ozone loss has cooled the region, it says, shielding it from global warming.

Rising temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula are making life suitable for invasive species on land and sea.

The report - Antarctic climate Change and the Environment - was written using contributions from 100 leading scientists in various disciplines, and reviewed by a further 200.

Composite image of Maestland storm barrier in the Netherlands and Mozambique coastline defence

SCAR's executive director Dr Colin Summerhayes said it painted a picture of "the creeping global catastrophe that we face".

"The temperature of the air is increasing, the temperature of the ocean is increasing, sea levels are rising - and the Sun appears to have very little influence on what we see," he said.

SCAR's report comes 50 years to the day after the Antarctic Treaty, the international agreement regulating use of the territory, was opened for signing, and a week before the opening of the potentially seminal UN climate summit in Copenhagen.

Read more...
 
'Show Your Working': What 'ClimateGate' means
Written by Mike Hulme and Jerome Ravetz   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009

The "ClimateGate" affair - the publication of e-mails and documents hacked or leaked from one of the world's leading climate research institutions - is being intensely debated on the web. But what does it imply for climate science? Here, Mike Hulme and Jerome Ravetz say it shows that we need a more concerted effort to explain and engage the public in understanding the processes and practices of science and scientists.

Robot
Practising scientists know that they do not simply follow a rulebook to do their science, otherwise it could be done by a robot

As the repercussions of ClimateGate reverberate around the virtual community of global citizens, we believe it is both important and urgent to reflect on what this moment is telling us about the practice of science in the 21st Century.

In particular, what is it telling us about the social status and perceived authority of scientific claims about climate change?

We argue that the evolving practice of science in the contemporary world must be different from the classic view of disinterested - almost robotic - humans establishing objective claims to universal truth.

Climate change policies are claimed to be grounded in scientific knowledge about physical cause and effect and about reliable projections of the future.

As opposed to other ways of knowing the world around us - through intuition, inherited belief, myth - such scientific knowledge retains its authority by widespread trust in science's reassuring norms of objectivity, universality and disinterestedness.

These perceived norms work to guarantee to the public trustworthy scientific knowledge, and allow such knowledge to claim high authority in political deliberation and argumentation; this, at least, is what historically has been argued in the case of climate change.

What distinguishes science from other forms of knowledge?

On what basis does scientific knowledge earn its high status and authority?

What are the minimum standards of scientific practice that ensure it is trustworthy?

For an open, enquiring and participative society, these are questions that have become much more important in the wake of ClimateGate.

They are also questions that scientists should continually be asking of themselves as the political and cultural worlds within which they do their work rapidly change.

Doing science in 2010 demands something rather different from scientists than did science in 1960, or even in 1985.

Read more...
 
'Global surge' in rhino poaching
Written by BBC News   
Tuesday, 01 December 2009
 
Black rhino (Image: BBC)
Conservationists call for action at the "highest level" to halt poaching

Rhino poaching around the world is on the rise despite efforts to protect the animals, a report warns.

The global surge in the illegal trade has been driven by demands from Asian medicinal markets, the study by conservationists concluded.

It suggests that a decline in law enforcement is the main reason for the rise in poaching in Africa.

The report found that 95% of rhino poaching in Africa since 2006 had occurred in Zimbabwe and South Africa.

The data was compiled by Traffic, the global wildlife trade monitoring network, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), with funding from WWF International.

The findings have been submitted to the secretariat of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), ahead of a key gathering in March.

The authors added that poachers were now adopting much more sophisticated techniques such as veterinary drugs to kill their prey.

Read more...
 
Save 'special' carnivores plea
Written by Matt Walker, Editor, Earth News   
Monday, 30 November 2009

Walrus
A unique animal

Giant otters, monk seals, walruses, spectacled bears, giant and red pandas and the odd-looking fossa are among the carnivores most in need of conserving.

That is according to the most-detailed study yet of the evolutionary history of carnivores and their relationships.

It examined 222 carnivore species including big cats, wolves, bears, seals, otters and their relatives.

It found that some species are so distinctive that special efforts should be made to ensure their survival.

 

We should pay careful attention to what is happening to walrus populations. Our results suggest we should fight to keep it safe
Professor Ingi Agnarsson
University of Puerto Rico

Details of the research are published in the journal Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution.

Despite the popularity of carnivores and the large number of studies done on them, scientists still do not completely understand how they evolved, and how modern species are related to one another.

"There are many questions that are yet to be answered in a satisfying manner," says Professor Ingi Agnarsson of the University of Puerto Rico in San Juan, who led the new study.

For example, the relationships between the cat-like families, known as feliforms, is unresolved.

"Even the relationships among the big cats, lion, tiger, leopard etc are really very poorly understood," he says.

Read more...
 
Solar panel costs 'set to fall'
Written by Roger Harrabin, Environment analyst, BBC News   
Monday, 30 November 2009

Photovoltaic panels
The fall in cost is due to the increased lifetime, the institute says

The cost of installing and owning solar panels will fall even faster than expected according to new research.

Tests show that 90% of existing solar panels last for 30 years, instead of the predicted 20 years.

According to the independent EU Energy Institute, this brings down the lifetime cost.

The institute says the panels are such a good long-term investment that banks should offer mortgages on them like they do on homes.

At a conference, the institute forecast that solar panels would be cost-competitive with energy from the grid for half the homes in Europe by 2020 - without a subsidy.

Basically everything (in the industry) is bound to grow still further. Growing further means less cost
Heinz Ossenbrink, EU Energy Institute

Incentive programmes for solar panels in Germany, Italy and Spain have created manufacturing volume that's bringing down costs. Solar panel prices dropped 30% last year alone due to an increase in output and a drop in orders because of the recession.

But Heinz Ossenbrink, who works at the institute, said China had underpinned its solar industry with a big solar domestic programme which would keep prices falling. There are large-scale solar plans in the US and India too.

Panels had been expected to last for 20 years and price calculations were based on this (with a free energy source, purchase and installation represent almost the entire price of solar power).

But Dr Ossenbrink says the institute's laboratory has been subjecting the cells to the sort of accelerated ageing through extremes of heat, cold and humidity that has long been a benchmark for the car industry.

Read more...
 
Mount Everest to host Nepal cabinet meeting
Written by BBC News   
Sunday, 29 November 2009
 
Mount Everest
Mount Everest is the highest point on earth

Nepal is to hold a cabinet meeting on Mount Everest to highlight the threat global warming poses to glaciers.

On 4 December prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and those politicians physically fit enough will ascend 17,192ft (5,250m) to base camp.

In October the Maldives held a cabinet meeting underwater to warn of the effect of rising sea levels.

This meeting, to be held before the Copenhagen climate conference, aims to highlight Himalayan glacier melt.

With ice in the region melting at a rapid rate, lakes have been formed which could flood nearby villages.

Melted ice and snow also makes mountaineering routes more hazardous.

At such a high altitude health is a major concern, so a team of doctors will accompany the politicians.

They will fly to Everest's only airstrip, Lukla.

Doctors will make a final health assessment before a helicopter takes the cabinet to base camp, at the foot of Everest.

Once there they will hold a brief outdoor meeting.

Mount Everest is the highest point on earth, with a summit 29,035 ft (8,850 m) above sea level.

 

source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8385170.stm

 
Big profit from nature protection
Written by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website   
Friday, 13 November 2009

Fire clearing Amazon forest for cattle
Societies gain financially from leaving forests intact rather than clearing them

Money invested in protecting nature can bring huge financial returns, according to a major investigation into the costs and benefits of the natural world.

It says money ploughed into protecting wetlands, coral reefs and forests can bring a hundredfold return on capital.

The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity study (Teeb) is backed by the UN and countries including the UK.

The project's leader says governments should act on its findings at next month's UN climate summit.

Teeb is the first attempt to evaluate the economic value of "ecosystem services" - things that parts of the natural world do for free, such as purifying drinking water or protecting coasts from storms - on a systematic and global basis.

We can say quite confidently that there is a solid benefit from investing in protected areas
Pavan Sukhdev

"We have now evaluated 1,100 studies ranging across different countries and different ecosystem services," said study leader Pavan Sukhdev, a Deutsche Bank economist.

"And we find that with protected areas, for example, no matter how you slice the figures up you come up with a ratio of benefits to costs that's between 25-to-one and 100-to-one.

"Now we can say quite confidently that there is a solid benefit from investing in protected areas," he told BBC News.

Read more...
 
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