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Greenland and parts of Antarctica are losing large volumes of ice to the oceans as their glaciers get thinner, a Nasa satellite has revealed. All of the glaciers that are changing rapidly are ones that flow into the sea. "The fact that they end in the sea means a buoyancy effect is working on them. As glaciers thin, they float better, and with less frictions, they slide into the sea faster. As glaciers thin, they reach a Tipping Point, and flow to the sea faster than they build up. source
 

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The mission of The 2050 Project is to provide accurate, useful, long-range forecasts and information about the future of the planet.  Our favored forecast interval is to 2050 and beyond, because we believe that shorter-range forecasts cannot portray the magnitude of our impending problems, and thus can only guide half-steps toward solution.

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Home arrow Blog arrow Pollyanna Principle
Pollyanna Principle PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Wednesday, 08 August 2007

According to the Pollyanna Principle, the brain processes information that is pleasing and agreeable in a more precise and exact manner as compared to unpleasant information.  The term can be used to refer to a variety of human tendencies: faster recognition of pleasant stimuli, the perception of pleasant stimuli occurring more regularly, the tendency for an individual to expose themselves to pleasant stimuli more frequently than unpleasant stimuli, the increasing accuracy of recall for pleasant stimuli, the manner in which positive information is processed more rapidly, etc. (Matlin & Gawron, 1979).  The explanation behind this phenomenon is that the cognitive processes, which give rise to language and behavior, favor the pleasant/positive information over unpleasant/negative information (Matlin & Stang, 1978). The Pollyanna Principle is a pervasive fact of human personalities: people want to hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil, believe no evil.

The rose-colored glasses that come with the Pollyanna Principle will get us into trouble as forecasters, for it will leave us with unrealistic optimistic guesses about the future, in which hope and expectation are muddled.  Examples are abundant:

  1. Coral reefs in the Pacific and Indian oceans are disappearing faster than had previously been thought, a scientific study has shown.
  2. Models Underestimate Loss of arctic sea ice

When predicting future natural events, there is no room for wishful thinking.

For further reading:

Matlin, Margaret W.,  and Stang, David J. (1978). The Pollyanna Principle: Selectivity in Language, Memory, and Thought. Schenkman, ISBN 978-0-87073-815-9

Last Updated ( Thursday, 01 November 2007 )
 
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